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Sunday, August 16, 2009

Stuy Town/Peter Cooper Village - Next to Go?



So asks the business info/analysis site Crain's New York. A new online article on Crain's has more on what's going on in New York, with foreclosures on properties providing opportunities for investment groups (including BlackRock!) to "swoop in" and gobble up these properties.

In Manhattan alone, there are 130 troubled properties worth $7.5 billion, according to Real Capital Analytics. With credit markets still frozen shut, many owners will be unable to refinance loans falling due and will have no choice but to default.

Eastdil Secured, for example, is currently marketing a $100 million debt position owned by insurer The Hartford that was used in 2006 to help finance the $5.4 billion purchase of Stuyvesant Town/Peter Cooper Village by Tishman Speyer and BlackRock. The owners had hoped to deregulate a substantial number of units in the sprawling rent-regulated complex and use the increased cash flow to pare down debt. That didn't happen, and the complex has been rapidly burning through rainy-day reserve funds. A default is possible as early as this fall, sources say.

Things may get very messy, however, because, as the article reasons, lawsuits are possible among a property's initial lenders. "Some lenders' positions will be completely wiped out in the event of a foreclosure," notes Crain's.

Somehow, I think, Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village will be saved from default, at least if papa Jerry Speyer can pull strings to help son Rob out of the embarrassment of such a downfall.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Senior securitized loan is worth $3bln. Mezz loans add up to $1.5bln (including Calpers and Calsters, I think). Addtl financing of $1.5bln bought this property (and escrowed debt service and cap improvement) for $6.0bln. Servicer for senior loan whispered a few months ago that senior loan will continue to pat interest (meaning servicer will pay interest rather than allow default in case TS fails to pay debt service on senior loan).

The question is this: Is TS willing to raise more money (and can they) for a property that is valued at less than the total of the senior loan and the mezz loan positions? (meaning less than $4.5billion). Take into account that next month's court case will have an impact on valuation of the property. If Appeals affirms lower court's decision, Value will be significantly reduce due to landlord's inability to de-stabilize apartments (in fact returning apartments to stabilization). Future growth of rents will be significantly reduced (in fact rent wil barely cover senior loan debt service).

I cannot see how TS would see any return on their investment. And I do this for a living!

So TS defaults. Court appoints a third party manager until mezz bankruptcy is completed. One of the mezz lenders will probably receive the property. And i believe two of the mezz lenders are Calpers and Calsters, the California pension funds (in for about $1.0bln of the $1.5bln mezz piece).

So TS may default. Property is then possibly owned by a pension fund that manages working class and union pension funds. Is that such a bad thing?

I think we can party in the Oval if that happens.

Anonymous said...

"So TS may default. Property is then possibly owned by a pension fund that manages working class and union pension funds. Is that such a bad thing?

I think we can party in the Oval if that happens."


THAT would be freakin' sweet.